Albion Financial Advice > Doradcy Finansowi w Wielkiej Brytanii > Inflacja spada do 2,3% w kwietniu: blisko, ale nie do końca

Dziś opublikowano dane pokazujące, że wskaźnik cen towarów i usług konsumpcyjnych (CPI) wzrósł o 2,3% w ciągu 12 miesięcy do kwietnia 2024 roku. To znaczący spadek w porównaniu do wzrostu o 3,2% w marcu. Chociaż jest to niższa wartość niż w poprzednim miesiącu, wciąż przekracza prognozy ekonomistów, które wynosiły 2,1%. Postęp jest widoczny, ale na świętowanie jeszcze za wcześnie.

Mieszane uczucia dla kredytobiorców

Pomimo tego, że spadek inflacji jest mile widziany, nie jest on wystarczająco duży, aby Komitet Polityki Monetarnej (MPC) obniżył stopy procentowe na następnym spotkaniu. Wielu miało nadzieję na bardziej dramatyczny spadek, który zbliżyłby Bank Anglii (BoE) do celu inflacyjnego wynoszącego 2%. Kolejny raport o inflacji pojawi się przed następnym ogłoszeniem BoE 20 czerwca, co może być decydującym momentem dla MPC. Wciąż istnieje nadzieja, że dane z czerwca przechylą szalę na korzyść obniżki stóp procentowych.

Optymizm w niepewności

Chociaż wskaźnik inflacji jest wyższy niż oczekiwano, wciąż są powody do optymizmu. W porównaniu do tego samego okresu rok temu, kiedy inflacja CPI wynosiła 8,7%, obecny wskaźnik 2,3% oznacza znaczący postęp. Ten spadek sugeruje, że gospodarka się stabilizuje, choć powoli, i może zacząć łagodzić presję na gospodarstwa domowe i firmy.

Kredytobiorcy mogą nadal liczyć na pewną ulgę na horyzoncie. Spadający wskaźnik inflacji, nawet jeśli nie jest tak niski, jak oczekiwano, może zachęcić BoE do rozważenia obniżek stóp procentowych jeszcze w tym roku, co byłoby korzystne dla właścicieli domów borykających się z wyższymi ratami kredytów hipotecznych.

Ostrożne podejście Banku Anglii

Pomimo pozytywnych trendów, BoE prawdopodobnie przyjmie ostrożne podejście. Najnowsze dane o inflacji dostarczają solidnych dowodów na to, że BoE powinien rozważyć złagodzenie obciążeń kredytobiorców. Jednak biorąc pod uwagę, że wskaźnik inflacji jest wyższy od prognoz, zmniejsza to szanse na obniżkę stóp procentowych w czerwcu. Obecne dane budzą optymizm na przyszłe obniżki, ale wymagana jest cierpliwość, ponieważ gospodarka nadal się stabilizuje.

Presja na BoE, aby podjąć działania, rośnie. Najnowszy raport MFW podkreślił ryzyka związane z brakiem obniżki stóp procentowych, wskazując na bezrobocie, niewypłacalność i dane dotyczące sald kredytowych jako wskaźniki pilnej potrzeby ulgi. Wszystko wskazuje teraz na obniżkę stóp bazowych, ale dokładny termin pozostaje niepewny.

Szerszy wpływ gospodarczy

Lekki brak prognoz inflacyjnych ma swoje konsekwencje. Wysoka inflacja w usługach, wynosząca 5,9%, i uporczywie wysoka inflacja bazowa są szczególnie niepokojące dla decydentów politycznych. Mimo to wskaźnik 2,3% poprawi zaufanie i sprawi, że kredytobiorcy będą bardziej optymistycznie nastawieni do przyszłości.

Spadek inflacji sygnalizuje, że gospodarka może zmierzać w stronę bardziej stabilnej fazy. Może to potencjalnie zwiększyć zaufanie na rynku nieruchomości i poza nim, zachęcając do większej aktywności i inwestycji.

Podsumowanie

Chociaż spadek inflacji do 2,3% w kwietniu jest zachęcający, to wciąż “blisko, ale nie do końca”. Kredytobiorcy i szersza gospodarka nadal czekają na tę kluczową obniżkę stóp procentowych od BoE. Następne dane będą kluczowe w określeniu, czy MPC podejmie działania w czerwcu, czy będziemy musieli poczekać nieco dłużej na ulgę, której tak wiele osób desperacko potrzebuje. Na razie pozostajemy z nadzieją, że ten spadkowy trend inflacji będzie kontynuowany, torując drogę do lepszych czasów.


Autor:

Dariusz-Karpowicz-Albion-Financial-Advice

Dariusz Karpowicz to specjalista z wieloletnim doświadczeniem na rynku finansowym w Wielkiej Brytanii.  Doradca finansowy, broker kredytowy. Właściciel Albion Financial Advice. W 2013 został jednym z założycieli stowarzyszenia polskich biznesów w Yorkshire – Polish Business House.


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